Premier League Betting Using xG Or Expected Goals Statistic

March 27, 2024, by Arnaldo Brito

Unlocking Premier League Betting With xG

xG or expected goals can be a useful statistic if incorporated correctly into a punter’s betting system and strategy. However, utilizing only xG comes with its own set of drawbacks. When a punter uses any math or stats in a betting strategy, it’s essential that a punter also utilizes context such as sources and past gameplays.

What Is xG Statistic?

xG means expected goals in a sporting event where they score goals to determine a winner. Desired goals are a statistical calculation made based on the mean number of goals a team should score in a game. xG is calculated based on the probability of a team scoring from a particular position on the pitch.

How Is xG measured?

The xG statistic is between 0.00 and 1.00. If a team or player has an xG of 0.00 from a particular position, they have a 0% chance of scoring a goal. Alternatively, if a team or player has a high xG statistic of 0.9, that team is expected to achieve 9 out of 10 shots from that position. Most teams rarely have an xG of 1 which means they score on every attempt.

Variables Used In xG

To understand how to calculate xG and assign a metric, punters need to understand the variables used in xG. A few variables that impact the probability of a team or player scoring a goal include the player on the ball, a short or long assist, range from goal, tap-in opportunity, open play or set-piece, and more. For example, the further away a player takes a shot on goal, the lower the xG and the probability of scoring and vice versa.

Criticisms Of xG

xG’s basis is on several assumptions on the probability of a team scoring. It’s not evidence of past performance, and neither is it an accurate representation of future success. Several critics voiced dissent against adopting xG when making football wagers because of the reliability of such statistics. However, punters should not only consider xG when making football wagers but also assess a wide range of metrics and utilize xG as expected average goals in a game.

Law Of Averages

xG is the expected average, indicating that a player or a team has a high probability of repeating an action if they’ve continued to do so consistently in the past. Consider a group such as Manchester City, a team that scores frequently. While the team will have a consistent xG across the board, the team’s probability of scoring a goal varies depending on the opponent Manchester City faces on any given day. Punters can utilize xG as the average expected goals in a game. However, a game of football is sometimes unpredictable.

When a player outperforms or underperforms their historical xG, their xG statistic tends to go back to its historical average. If a player has a drop in form, with a historical xG of 2.00 against Swansea City, the expected xG should revert to 2 from under two after the dip in form passes. When players or teams perform exceptionally well or go on a dreadful run of games, the average of expected goals can get severely skewed.

Offsides play an essential role in a game of football. However, some statistical xG calculations also include shots taken and scored from an offside position. If a player scores an offside goal, the goal will not count. Hence, while using xG statistics, punters should allocate a small margin of error to include offside shots and goals.

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