Assessing Probability In Sports Betting

May 27, 2024, by Toby Banks

Evaluating Probability In Sports Betting

It's only possible to beat bookmakers by predicting matches; you need a great understanding of mathematics to see what's happening behind making odds. Finding value bets is more important than statistics, probabilities, and odds formation. How do you find overvalued odds, correctly predict the likelihood of matches, and what does probability even mean? We will go through all that in this article, so let's go.

Theory Of Probability In Sports Betting

Probability theory is the backbone of the bookmaking job in making odds. The chances of a player winning and the odds are on probabilities. With knowledge of possibilities, you will likely have consistent and positive percentages in betting. You can usually see the difference between an experienced and a newbie in sports betting if they need to implement the likelihood when placing a bet.

For example, to better understand what we are talking about,t if a bookmaker is giving an odd of 1.55 to win Real Madrid in a game against Atletico Madrid. Without going into the mathematics of probability, this bet is excellent because the chance of Real Madrid winning is high. But if the odds were 1.10, this bet is no longer attractive in the player's eyes because losing this bet outweighs winning on this tiny margin.

There is another excellent example with a coin toss. When you flip a coin ten times, you will expect 5/5 heads and tails, but it can be a 7/3 split too. It averages out on about 100 000 and more tosses to translate it into odds that it will be 2.0. If you make more than thousands of bets on a coin toss, it will average it out, and profit/loss will not have a noticeable difference.

Odds and Value

Bookmakers try to predict outcomes with the theory of probability and set the odds; there are two operations:

Set a margin. Almost everybody knows the house always wins, but you don't have to lose. They are making money either way. There are 2.0 or 50/50 chances for head and tails, but bookmakers never give 50/50 a 2.0 odds. It's more like 1.90 odds.
Changing the odds if most players bet on them: For bookmakers, the most important thing is to predict what most players will play and misjudge the odds. Because if most players bet on team A to win and the correct odds are 1.70, they will set it at 1.60 at best.

It seems so little, but it has mathematical backup, so bookmakers have a massive edge over you when everything is over and always win.

How To Calculate The Chances Of Something Happening

For example, if you are playing roulette at a casino, you always know the chances of hitting a number. Still, in betting, it's doubtful that you will calculate the spot-on probability because of the number of things considered. There is no working method to calculate the probability that can exactly tell you the chances of something happening in the match. There are programs and formulas you could type your data in and get some prediction and probability, but you will never get an exact one.

Closing Thoughts

Remember that the odds you see bookmakers give rarely represent real chances of playing out a match. They are close, but they need to have margins to make money. Bookmakers also can be wrong and make odds that go in your favor. You should always do your research and try to find value bets.

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Betting Probability