The Art of Staking: Fixed, Variable, and Kelly Explained

January 27, 2026, by Toby Banks

The Art of Staking: Fixed, Variable, and Kelly Explained

Most bettors spend all their time trying to pick the right games—but how much you bet matters just as much, if not more. That’s where staking strategy comes in. A proper staking method can help you grow your bankroll steadily and protect it during downswings. Let’s break down the three core approaches: Fixed, Variable, and Kelly Criterion.

1. Fixed Staking: Keep It Simple

What it is:
You bet the same amount on every wager—no matter the odds, confidence level, or match importance.

Example: You always bet RM100, whether it’s a World Cup Final or a second-tier league match.

Pros:

Easy to implement
Reduces emotional decisions
Good for beginners

Cons:

Doesn’t take advantage of high-confidence picks
Less efficient for advanced traders

Best for: New bettors and anyone testing out a new betting system.

2. Variable Staking: Bet Based on Confidence

What it is:
You adjust your stake size depending on how confident you are in a bet.

Example: RM50 on a low-confidence pick, RM200 on a high-confidence one.

Pros:

Lets you take more advantage of strong edges
Adds flexibility to your system

Cons:

Can be abused if confidence is based on emotion
Requires accurate self-assessment

Best for: Intermediate traders with good discipline and performance tracking.

Tip: Use a star rating system or confidence % scale to guide consistency.

3. Kelly Criterion: The Math-Driven Edge

What it is:
A mathematical formula that tells you how much to stake based on your estimated edge and the odds.

Formula:

Kelly % = [(Decimal Odds × Probability) - 1] ÷ (Decimal Odds - 1)

Then multiply your bankroll by the result.

Pros:

Optimizes long-term growth
Built for value betting

Cons:

Requires highly accurate edge estimation
Stakes can be large and volatile

Best for: Advanced traders with strong models and sharp edge tracking.

Pro Tip: Many pros use Fractional Kelly (e.g., half-Kelly) to reduce risk.

Which One Should You Use?

Skill Level	Recommended Staking
Beginner	Fixed
Intermediate	Variable
Advanced	Kelly (or fractional)

No one strategy is perfect. Your staking method should grow with your experience and risk tolerance.

Final Thoughts

You can win bets and still lose money if your staking is off. Likewise, you can lose some bets and still make profit with smart staking. Don’t just focus on picking winners—focus on betting smarter.

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Kelly Criterion