How to Use xG and Advanced Stats to Win More Football Bets

August 18, 2025, by Toby Banks

Using Expected Goals (xG) and Other Metrics to Improve Football Betting

In today’s data-driven betting landscape, smart bettors are going beyond basic stats like wins and goals. They’re digging into advanced metrics like Expected Goals (xG) to get a clearer picture of a team’s true performance. If you’re still betting based on final scores and league tables, you’re leaving value on the table. Here’s how xG and other advanced stats can sharpen your football trading game.

1. What is Expected Goals (xG)?

Expected Goals (xG) is a metric that quantifies the quality of scoring chances in a football match. Each shot is given a value between 0 and 1 based on factors like:

Shot location
Type of assist
Body part used
Defensive pressure
Game situation

The higher the xG, the more likely a shot was to result in a goal.

Example:

If Team A beats Team B 1-0 but xG was 0.6 vs. 2.1, the underlying stats suggest Team B created far better chances. That insight can reveal hidden value for future matches.

2. Why xG Matters for Bettors

Goes beyond the scoreline: xG tells you if a win was deserved or lucky.
Predicts future performance: Teams that consistently outperform or underperform xG tend to regress.
Helps spot undervalued teams: A team with poor results but strong xG may be due for a turnaround.

3. Other Key Metrics to Consider

While xG is king, there are other advanced stats worth adding to your toolkit:

xA (Expected Assists): Measures the quality of a pass that leads to a shot. Great for evaluating creative players.
PPDA (Passes Allowed per Defensive Action): Indicates pressing intensity. Helps you understand a team’s defensive style.
xPoints: Calculates how many points a team should have earned based on xG outcomes.
Non-shot xG models: Includes possessions and build-up play that don’t result in a shot but show dominance.

4. How to Use Metrics in Your Betting Strategy

Compare xG to actual scores: Spot teams whose results don’t match their chances created.
Track over time: Look at 5- or 10-game rolling averages to smooth out anomalies.
Find market inefficiencies: Bookmakers often price based on recent results. Stats-based traders can find edges.
Use for live trading: Monitor in-play xG updates to adjust bets on the fly.

5. Where to Find xG and Advanced Stats

Some popular resources include:

FBref.com
Understat.com
FotMob
Infogol
The Analyst

These sites offer both team and player-level data to enhance your analysis.

Conclusion

Expected Goals (xG) and other advanced metrics offer a deeper, more predictive layer to football betting. By combining smart data analysis with solid market awareness, you can uncover value where others only see the final score. Start applying these metrics and trade smarter with confidence—only on SportsTrade.

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